Reports and papers

New Model Sheds Light on Insurgency Evolution

It has far-reaching implications for refining counterinsurgency strategies

Tarqeq Research has unveiled a new computational model to enhance the understanding of insurgency and counterinsurgency dynamics. The model, informed by principles of complex adaptive systems, simulates the numerical strength of insurgents, the development of their networks, and the shifting ratio of active to removed insurgents.

Insurgent networks, characterized by their complexity, are notoriously hard to comprehend and predict, especially due to the scarcity of comprehensive datasets tracking insurgent populations over time.

The Tarqeq model realistically depicts insurgency evolution by accounting for factors such as insurgent recruitment and removal, the rise of new insurgent leaders, and feedback interactions between insurgent and counterinsurgent populations. Significantly, under certain conditions, the model reveals that the ratio of cumulative numbers of removed to total insurgents can be viewed as an indicator of counterinsurgency learning.

Tarqeq’s research has far-reaching implications for refining counterinsurgency strategies, demystifying insurgent networks, and bolstering international security. Policymakers, military personnel, and security analysts can leverage these insights to devise more efficacious counterinsurgency tactics and better respond to security challenges.

For media inquiries, please contact: