Simulating Insurgent Populations Through a Dynamic Network Model
Tarqeq Research has developed a computational model to estimate the numerical strength of insurgents based on a network model. The model simulations present estimates of ratios of cumulative active to cumulative removed insurgents, addressing a fundamental question in counterinsurgency analysis. The model, informed by principles of complex adaptive systems, captures the dynamics of insurgent recruitment and removal, the emergence of new insurgent leaders, and feedback effects between insurgent and counterinsurgent populations. Furthermore, the Tarqeq model shows that in certain conditions, the ratio of cumulative numbers of removed to total insurgents could serve as a proxy for a counterinsurgency learning curve. The modelling has potential implications for understanding and addressing insurgent networks and improving counterinsurgency strategies.
The Black Friday Web
A Network Analysis of the 1993 Mumbai Bombings
The first edition of the Tarqeq Reports looks at the worst terrorist attack on Indian soil till date—the 1993 Mumbai bombings that killed 257 people—using network-analytic methods. The report is based on an in-house database of 220 individuals who Indian law enforcement had–at various points–charged with involvement in the attacks. The in-house database also contains more than 1370 distinct links between these individuals, which were reduced to 605 key ones using a specific procedure. Using an open-source software, the database was analysed to obtain centrality measures associated with all actors allegedly involved in the 1993 attacks. The report also makes some specific observations which could aid Indian law enforcement authorities and security services in uncovering the broader conspiracy behind the 1993 attacks.
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