Analysts, like detectives, rely on induction from available evidence as much as deduction from general premises to reach logically sound conclusions. But inference is as much an art as it is a science. In this module, we will introduce some basic methods of analytical tradecraft—ways through which intelligence analysts construct hypotheses, weigh evidence, and arrive at judgments. We will discuss the role of biases and heuristics in the process and judiciously working with incomplete information. We will also delve into the basics of logical and statistical inference, and end with a brief overview of how to rigorously think about cause and effect.
The module consists of three one-hour live lectures along with time for interactive exercises. It can be delivered in-person or virtually.
- Introduction to analytical tradecraft
- Incomplete information, analytical judgement, and quantification
- Biases and heuristics
- The promises and perils of inference
- Very basics of statistical inference and causality
About the Instructor
Abhijnan REJ is a security analyst and mathematician, and Founder & Chief Scientist of Tarqeq Research LLP. He has held senior positions in think tanks and media, and has also been a corporate R&D scientist and mathematics lecturer. Rej holds undergraduate and graduate degrees in mathematics from the University of Connecticut.
Tarqeq Research LLP provides bespoke research-based solutions and training to help meet a wide range of global security challenges of concern to businesses, national and subnational governments using cutting-edge methods steeped in contemporary scientific traditions.