Risk, Uncertainty, and Rational Choice

A Tarqeq training module

Analysts routinely refer to uncertainty and rationality while discussing political, economic, and strategic affairs. Yet, both are deceptively simple notions. In this module, we will deep-dive into what uncertainty actually is and how and when it can be measured. We will look at the difference between risk and uncertainty by drawing on real-world examples, and along the way, gently introduce some core ideas from the theory of probability. We will briefly look at the mathematics of rationality—again through concrete examples—and end with a basic discussion of game theory as applied to strategic affairs.

Topics Covered
  • Risk, ambiguity, and uncertainty
  • Probability theory in a nutshell
  • Measuring risks of extreme events
  • Introduction to rational choice and decision-making
  • Very basics of games, bargaining, and coordination

The module consists of three one-hour live lectures along with time for interactive exercises. It can be delivered in-person or virtually.

Tarqeq Research LLP provides bespoke research-based solutions and training to help meet a wide range of global security challenges of concern to businesses, national and subnational governments using cutting-edge methods steeped in contemporary scientific traditions.