Analysts routinely refer to uncertainty and rationality while discussing political, economic, and strategic affairs. Yet, both are deceptively simple notions. In this module, we will deep-dive into what uncertainty actually is and how and when it can be measured. We will look at the difference between risk and uncertainty by drawing on real-world examples, and along the way, gently introduce some core ideas from the theory of probability. We will briefly look at the mathematics of rationality—again through concrete examples—and end with a basic discussion of game theory as applied to strategic affairs.
Topics Covered
- Risk, ambiguity, and uncertainty
- Probability theory in a nutshell
- Measuring risks of extreme events
- Introduction to rational choice and decision-making
- Very basics of games, bargaining, and coordination
The module consists of three one-hour live lectures along with time for interactive exercises. It can be delivered in-person or virtually.
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