Assessing an Assessment

What can a reader evaluate in a finished intelligence assessment when its supporting reporting and production records are unavailable? The CIA’s January 1981 memorandum Kashmir: A Simmering Trouble Spot provided the test case. A project-developed audit procedure examined its judgments, attribution, uncertainty and reasoning. The audit showed where the memorandum explains its judgments and where its wording leaves questions open. Some passages explain why a judgment was made or state when it would hold. Elsewhere, it is unclear how the surrounding statements lead to the judgment. For selected major judgments, the released copy does not show the intelligence reports they drew on. Formalisation made selected relationships available for inspection and checking.

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